What can Johor by-elections tell us about Pelangai?

Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim’s coalition government was granted a slight reprieve when both his ally’s candidates won during the Sept 9 by-elections for Pulai and Simpang Jeram.

This was after his administration was dealt a serious blow during the Aug 12 state elections, in which rival Perikatan Nasional clinched landslide victories in three states while making in-roads in states held by Pakatan Harapan-BN.

On Oct 7, the Anwar government will face another test in the form of a by-election for Pelangai, where BN will be attempting to defend the Pahang legislative assembly seat against PN.

The stakes in Pelangai are very high because Pahang does not have laws to discourage the defection of lawmakers and there is speculation that a win by PN could cause dominoes to fall, leading to another abrupt change of government.

To understand possible voting trends ahead of the Pelangai polls, this article will examine shifts in voting sentiments during the Sept 9 by-elections for Pulai and Simpang Jeram in Johor...