COMMENT | The tide is turning, Harapan can win outright

COMMENT | Pakatan Harapan’s loss of power after upsetting Umno/BN’s 61-year reign in 2018 has resulted in a dangerous despair leading to apathy at GE15, even among those who voted for them previously. But there is more than a glimmer of hope that things have turned around.

Even so, as the race rushes to the finish line this Saturday, the last two days will be crucial to see if the advantage can be pushed through for a decisive victory. This will require voters to come out in droves to deliver their verdict.

The underlying logic is this. A cascading and confluence of certain events has led to an erosion of Malay support for Umno/BN in favour of Harapan and PN, the Bersatu-PAS alliance.

And given the continuing strong support for Harapan among non-Malays and the three-way split of Malay votes between Harapan, Umno and PN, that will be enough to tip the balance in favour of Harapan in most areas. It may be likely to give Harapan even a clear simple majority without the need for alliances.

The main reason for Umno’s decline is that its president Ahmad Zahid Hamidi’s gamble to pull the trigger and hold elections in the middle of the monsoons, when floods are very likely, has failed. The Umno machinery is simply unable to provide a good reason. People are tired of being victimised for the personal gain of politicians.

Zahid’s several references to the king deciding who becomes PM has not helped and strengthened the belief that he would become PM if Umno/BN had a large number of seats, an unacceptable situation to many who don’t want a PM with the albatross of corruption hanging heavily around his neck.

A hurried denial by top Umno/BN leaders that caretaker PM Ismail Sabri Yaakob will still be retained felt more like the rearguard action of a retreating army than an offensive to regain the support of the people.

While Umno floundered, largely because of Zahid’s desperation to stay relevant and in power, its slack was picked up by Harapan and PN, boosting the chances of both coalitions at the polls. This has put Harapan in a stronger position than earlier thought.

Are there numbers to back this? Yes, there is. There are two...