COMMENT | Total lockdown - survive to restart

COMMENT | Although the latest movement control order (MCO) with the restrictions on interstate and interdistrict travel, social activities, sports, and education has been imposed effective from May 10 to June 7, it does not appear to be slowing the spread of Covid-19 infections.

Hence, the just-announced "total lockdown" from June 1 to 14 is the right decision, though a complete lockdown of 21 days is more appropriate.

The graphs below summarises the worrying dynamic, that despite the latest MCO, daily new infections have only accelerated, currently adding approximately 50,000 new infections in a matter of just one week. Daily new deaths appear to accelerate even faster.

At the same time, we should be cognisant of the epidemiologists’ warning reiterated all the time that the number of confirmed cases is lower than the number of actual cases; the main reason for that is testing limitations. The sufficiency of testing is evaluated by the test positive rate (TPR).

Science recommends that the TPR should remain under five percent. Therefore, a TPR value that is too high might indicate either insufficiency of testing or too widespread of an infection in the community. The latter means that no matter how much you increase the number of tests, if the spread in the community is too wide, a TPR value under five percent may not be achievable...